GOVERNOR
EPISODE
CUSTOM→
INFLATION
OCR — —
TAYLOR RULE—
DEVIATION (OCR − TAYLOR)—
MEAN DEVIATION (WINDOW)—
CPI HEADLINE—
OUTPUT GAP — —
EXPORT WINDOW DATA
INTEREST RATES
INTEREST RATES — %
OCR (Actual)
Taylor Rule
Inertial Taylor
π* Target
TAYLOR RULE DECOMPOSITION
TAYLOR RULE DECOMPOSITION — %
Neutral Rate (r*)
Inflation Gap
Output Gap
OCR
OCR DEVIATION FROM TAYLOR RULE
OCR DEVIATION FROM TAYLOR RULE — pp
▲ Hawkish▼ Dovish
PARAMETER PLAYGROUND
TAYLOR RULE
iOCR
=r*MPS nominal
+0.50α
·(π −inflation
π*hist.
)
+0.50β
·gapoutput
INERTIAL TAYLOR RULE
iOCR
=0.85ρ
·it−1
+0.151−ρ
·i*Taylor
RESPONSE COEFFICIENTS
αinflation gap weight
0.5002
βoutput gap weight
0.5002
OR — ESTIMATE α AND β FROM DATA
Runs OLS of (OCR − r*) on inflation gap and output gap over the selected window.
NEUTRAL RATE r*
Override with flat r*
real r* overridereal neutral rate
2.00-14
INFLATION TARGET π*
Override with flat π*
π* constant override
2.0004
DISPLAY & MODEL FIT
Show Inertial Taylor Rule
FIT vs ACTUAL OCR — R² (centred)
Taylor Rule—
Inertial Taylor—