This platform benchmarks the RBNZ's Official Cash Rate (OCR) against the Taylor Rule — a rule-based framework that prescribes an interest rate from inflation and the output gap. The goal is not to argue the RBNZ should follow any rule mechanically, but to provide a structured lens for analysing how actual policy has differed from rule-based recommendations across governors, economic episodes, and parameter assumptions.
The Dashboard shows the OCR versus the Taylor Rule over time, with a decomposition of what drives the prescribed rate and a deviation chart showing how far the RBNZ ran above or below the rule at each point. Parameters are adjustable in real time — change the inflation response, output gap weight, or neutral rate assumption and all charts update immediately.
The Analytics page provides a statistical breakdown of deviations: distributions, rolling trends, scatter correlations, and a regime comparison table estimating each governor's implicit policy reaction function.
All data is sourced from official RBNZ publications. A core limitation applies throughout: the RBNZ set each OCR using information available at that time, whereas Taylor estimates here use the latest revised data vintage. Historical deviations are a retrospective benchmark, not a real-time verdict on individual decisions. See the Methodology page for full details.
The platform updates daily. The MPS dataset is replaced after each quarterly release (February, May, August, November). The B1 exchange rate file refreshes monthly. Core inflation measures and the neutral rate series are updated manually shortly after each MPS release.
Because newer MPS vintages revise historical output gap and GDP estimates, previously published quarters may also update when a new vintage is incorporated. The vintage indicator above shows which MPS release the current database reflects.
| SOURCE | SERIES | COVERAGE | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBNZ Monetary Policy Statements | OCR, output gap, CPI headline, GDP, unemployment | Q1 2000 – present | Quarterly projections sheet. Forward projections excluded. Output gap for the current quarter is included as the RBNZ uses it in their deliberations, but is labelled provisional. |
| RBNZ B1 Exchange Rates | NZD/USD exchange rate | Jan 1999 – prior month | Monthly B1 series (EXR.MS11.D06) averaged to quarterly frequency. |
| RBNZ MPS — Neutral Rate | Nominal neutral OCR (r*) | Q1 2000 – present | Manually compiled quarterly series from MPS neutral rate guidance. Pre-2010 values backfilled from the RBNZ's Finding Neutral bulletin and earlier MPS commentary. |
| Policy Targets Agreements & Remits | Inflation target π* | 1990 – present | Three-step series: 1.0% (1990–1996), 1.5% (1996–2002), 2.0% (2002–present). |
The platform is under active development. Planned additions:
Independent personal project. Not affiliated with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.